Computers Moving Towards the Light

I remember sitting in my undergrad dorm room stunned at my 533 MHz processing computer’s quickness.  I watched my C and RPG programs run, and the programs would just scream along.  The following year I watched in wonder as Intel and AMD fought the processor war.  I got excited when the first 1.0 GHz processor released.  Then the 2.0 GHz barrier was broken, followed by the 3.0 GHz obstacle.  I heard rumors questioning how much longer this could continue.  There must be a limit to the processors’ material to move faster.

As I started reading more and more about limitations of computers, I learned of Moore’s Law, the growth of speed and limitations.  Yet CPU speed is not the only bottleneck of computers, we have overcome many traffic jams through solid state drives, larger buses, and more RAM.  Right now I can purchase servers with as many core processors as I want, terabytes of RAM and petabytes of storage.  Further, you can purchase graphic and nic cards with their own processors and memory cache to speed performance.  Yet, we still demand more speed and more storage.  Our creation of content rate goes beyond exponential growth.  As Kevin Kelly mentioned, the Internet is alive and growing.  Think of the larger cloud corporations like Google, they need more robust machines to supply and meet our demands. 

I think the next generation of computing devices, optical computers, will step up to meet the demand.  Quantum computers will provide a possible alternative, but they are not quite ready for production in the near future (my opinion).  In Halal’s book, Technology’s Promise, he states that optical computers will operate 1,000 times faster than electric processing computers (p52, 2008).  TechCast.org predicts that optical computers will have a moderate acceptance in society by 2018 with a 63% confidence interval from the experts of their organization.

Several forces drive this acceptance and deployment of optical computers in the future.  First, developmental motivation compels research universities and corporations to create the first economical and feasible optical computer.  The creation is already in progression as MIT researchers created a photonic chip and IBM discovered a method to emit light through nanotubes.  Secondly, economical inspiration forces research institutions to discover more fiscally sound equipment to continue entrepreneur growth on a dime.  Thirdly, the cultural aspect of desiring faster computing with more storage drives firms to find resources/equipment to supply the demand of the public.  Combining these forces and the quest to innovate, the current society provides the perfect storm to not only create, but also widely accept the next generation of computers, the optical computer.

Halal, W. E. (2008). Technology’s Promise.p.86-88. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.

Software Evolution Path

I enjoy programming as a hobby, so the software evolution has interested me for quite some time.  In the past, our only choice consisted of proprietary software, such as Windows, Office, Apple OS, or iLife.  Then groups of programmers started to collaborate on a different level to produce open source software (OSS).  As technology advanced apps, smaller light weight software programs, emerged for all devices (phones, handheld devices, slates, and computers).  With mobility on the rise, the cloud came back into existence. 

The days of purchasing software on some type of medium (floppy, CD, DVD) will soon cease to exist.  In the future, users will purchase and download all software from the web in the form of apps and clouds.

Innovation PodCast

Innovation PodCast

(click to listen)

Winston Churchill, Futurist

In William Sherden’s book, The Fortune Sellers, he wrote a chapter entitled, The Futurists.  In the chapter, he discussed the emergence of predicting the future and gave a few classifications of futurist groups along with their characteristics.  I was amazed at some of the futurists that Sherden described, because I did not initially view them as futurists.  He also explained their predictions and I was amused by some and surprised by others.

One such futurist that caught my attention was Winston Churchill.  I had read his biography when I was younger and respected him for his accomplishments, but I never viewed him as a futurist until I read this chapter.  Churchill wrote an article titled, Fifty Years Hence, which makes several predictions about future events.  Not all of the predictions came true, such as the 600 horse power engine weighing less than 20 pounds or the use of atomic energy to control the climate.  However, several of his predicts came true, including the advancements in biological science and teleconferencing abilities.

As I focus on his prediction of teleconferencing people on the other side of the world, I see many forces that help support this technology to make it a reality.  First, there was an economical need to sell goods to new markets.  In order to sell goods, we needed to construct a communication system to network all of the world’s markets.  Next, technological advancements allowed video and voice to travel quicker, easier, and use less resources to link more people.  Thirdly, the global desire to connect to one another led to more complex research in communication.  With innovative technologists, people now have the ability to videoconference (teleconference) through technologies like Skype, videoconferencing bridges, Live Messenger, and phone conference bridges.

Sherden, W. A. (1998). The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions. John Wiley & Sons, New York. ISBN-13: 978-0471358442

A Delicious Post

When trying to think of one of my favorite web 2.0 tools for supporting socio-technical innovation, I struggled, because I realized for the first time how much I utilize web 2.0 tools.  Web 2.0 has become a part of my everyday life.  I enjoy working on my wiki, blogging, casting, designing, and posting.  As I started thinking more about socio-technical innovation, it dawned on me that research is key to innovation.

I gather all of my web resources in delicious.  Delicious is a social bookmarking site, which solves the issue of having favorites on different computers.  Delicious bookmarks follow you on every computer you log onto.  Additionally, there are browser add-ons that make accessing delicious and bookmarking as easy as a simple click on the mouse. 

In addition to the bookmarks following you anywhere you have an internet connection, another great feature is the tagging capability.  When you bookmark a site you can tag it for organization and searching options.

Some other nice features include the ability to share your delicious tags with others (mine) and the collaboration options.  For all the sites you bookmark, you can see who else has bookmarked that same site.  They may have sites that you like as well and you can discover new resources.  Moreover, you can network with others and in essence who you network with their bookmarks become yours if you wish.

Delicious supports innovation in a multitude of ways.  It collects and organizes all your resources that you tag.  As your reading an article, it probably has multiple links to other resources.  You can tag these links to read the sites later as you continue to focus on your current article to finish reading it.  Moreover, you can see what others have bookmarked with a similar tag which will allow you to discover more resources.  Furthermore, delicious encourages networking.  You can discover others who share similar interests in tags.  In conclusion, delicious offers a practical solution to have your favorites follow you on any computer and a great technical tool to inspire innovation and collaboration.

Close seconds included Google docs (although I think that leans more towards cloud computing) and my sticky notes.

Kinetic Energy

In the next 20 years, I predict that kinetic energy will be a viable widely accepted alternative power source for our personal devices that we carry on ourselves.  We currently can purchase devices that harness our kinetic energy, like watches and cell phones; however, these devices are not widely accepted and affordable to the average user.

To determine if my forecast could possibly become reality, I would implement the classic Delphi method.  The Delphi method incorporates a series of questions posed in several rounds, where the answers are reported in such a way that experts answering the questions do not know who’s answering it.  Ultimately, the rounds of questions will reveal a consensus of whether my hypothesis could be correct or not (Cornish pg 67).  My use of the Delphi method to forecast will be similar to others who have used it to forecast future innovations in the past (Skulmoski pg 5).

Examining my forecast further, there exist both supporting and non-supporting factors.  The drive for environmental improvements with alternative energy provides excellent support to relinquish the strong hold of oil and coal and endorse kinetic energy.  Another supporting force includes technical which will continue its legacy in the advancement of technology in providing power options.  On the other hand, a non-supporting force could be financial.  The expense to create the device that uses kinetic energy may outweigh its benefit.  Yet another non-supporting force pertains to reliability.  Will the device be reliable enough to keep time, not drop calls, etc?

Hopefully, the group of experts participating in the Delphi method will be able to collaborate and come to a consensus on my forecast.  I would create a closed collaboration environment to keep the author’s responses secretive from each other through an anonymous list of responses (http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm).  I will accept the loss of time in order to preserve anonymity to reduce peer influence and pressure, ensuring a pure and correct consensus on my forecast from the experts.

Delphi Method. (2010). Web Page. Retrieved January 27^th 2011, from the Creative Minds Website: http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm

Cornish, Edward (2004). Futuring:  The Exploration of the Future. Maryland: World Future Society.

Skulmoski, G., Hartman, F., & Krahn, J. (2007) The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. Journal of Information Technology Education, 6(21).

Humanity Through Machines

In the TED videos, Amber Case explains why she studies cyborg anthropology in We are all cyborgs now and relates to future technologies that are being developed.  Humans are also inquisitive in nature.  We explore space, under water worlds, jungles, and the undiscovered.  One undiscovered world is the possibilities of technology.   Technology enhances life, cures illnesses, adds comfort, and makes life more livable.  Our children grow up with a smart phone attached to them.  Their life and culture revolves around communicating through texts, chats, facebook posts and much more brought about by technology.

Technology has brought about a second self.  Now we must manage both our primary self and our second or technological self.  We carry our life’s history in our devices and online.  The question is how do we control or present our second self.  Friends begin to interact with our second self even when our primary self is not watching our second self.  We are or can be in touch with any of our friends or family at any time instantly through technology whether it’s with cell phones through texting and calls or with computers through chat and video conference calls (Skype).  Technology creates the first technosocial wormholes that bring our second selves together.

Technology is great, but it does have its impact.  Think of the psychological impact on society.  We are always connected to one another.  You can reach me any time and connect with me.  I have hundreds of friends who follow me on some media or another like facebook, twitter, Skype, blogs, or wikis.  I get calls, texts, and skypes at all hours.  Granted my wife gets a little upset with me when my phone goes off at 1 or 2 in the morning, but nonetheless people can reach me.  Amber suggests that people are taking less time for mental reflection and are not slowing down from being connected to all their friends and family competing for their attention.  The psychological stress is very demanding.

Moreover, I mentioned before that our life’s history is on these devices.  What will happen to our spatial reality?  Spatial becomes a real issue.  Typically we purchase a lot of stuff in our life time, but have you noticed that you purchasing less physical items and more virtual items.  We have thousands of apps, software, digital pictures, digital videos, and virtual worlds.  Our second self is expanding and needs more virtual items. If our devices crash and we don’t have a backup, we feel a sense of loss.  Part of our documented history can never be recovered again.

I would like our think tank to consider the psychological effects of technology along with its spatial changes.

William Sherden's Science Fact and Fiction Chapter

William Sherden’s The Fortune Sellers chapter 6 offers insights on futuristic predictions and forecasts.  Surprisingly, 85% of futuristic technology predictions fall short and a large portion of successful technologies were never seen coming.  I was even more surprised to learn that in some instances, the expert think tanks has approximately the same success rate of predicting future technologies as an average person who makes predictions.

Another insight Sherden presents involves the influence of the supplier to the public.  The Betamax and VHS example supports the supplier influence model.  Two formats with similar capabilities battle for dominance in the market.  Eventually, storefronts start to favor VHS and carry more VHS format tapes than Betamax.  Consumers notice the storefront trend and also start to favor VHS, sending Betamax into a quick obsolescence.

Sherden shared several great insights in the Science Fact and Fiction chapter.  I look forward to reading more of the book and would recommend the read to others too.

2010 Horizon Report

The 2010 Horizon Report written in collaboration with The New Media Consortium and the Educause Learning Initiative reinforces the concepts that many educational leaders have been discussing.  Devices are more portable now than they ever have been.  Access to information is growing increasingly easier to obtain along with the ability to author to the web.  The exponential growth of self-authoring media has exploded and everyone wants an audience.  The Internet provides the most efficient method of distributing a person’s work.

One of the most explosive trends involves “people expecting to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want.”  We now have the technology to place all the information in the world at our finger tips.  For instance, Kindle offers an excellent medium to give readers easy access to a library of books anywhere and anytime.  Moreover, the Kindle app allows your library to follow you on your laptop, netbook, tablet, or smart phone.  People now have the capability of learning/reading on the bus or subway to school/work, while waiting at the doctor’s office, or relaxing at home.  The technology potentially has no limits.  Yet, let’s not forget iTunes U, all the Tubes, and Netflix.  We can also view and listen to literature, documentaries, videos, and movies on any of our devices at any time.

Another common trend is “the work of students is increasingly seen as collaborative by nature...” and why not.  When we go to work we collaborate with our colleagues.  I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know everything.  I can’t be an expert in everything.  I rely on the people I work with for help or at least direction to where I can research the information that I don’t know.  Students should work together to build knowledge and discover content relationships.  Moreover, “… there is more cross campus collaboration between departments.”  I feel in some aspects that we need to throw down the barriers of segregating departments.  When a student is working on a physics problem, they may need calculus to solve it.  Most students struggle to put two and two together, because the content realms have been segregated their whole lives.  It is very difficult for students to see how math relates to science which could also relate to English and so on.  More collaboration is required for our students to make breakthroughs.  We don’t work like that and the world doesn’t work like that, so why should we learn in this manner.  We (teachers and professors) should throw aside our pride and work together more for the benefit of our students and our future.  Let’s face it, the “…role of the academy and the way prepare students for their future lives is changing.”

With academy changing, our conceptual ideas and technologies must adapt to the shift.  One of the most promising technologies evolving for education involves open content.  I’m really excited to unlock the potential to this particular technology.  With the current economic state and the cost of textbooks, I really foresee schools and universities moving towards open content.  I realize the challenges with validity and reliability on open content.  We will have to overcome these challenges with creative solutions.  Open content allows professors and teachers to customize their lessons, based on selecting pieces of open content for the students to read.  Authors, educators and innovators are currently producing legitimate open content that can be shared among us.  Several universities, like MIT, open their content up to others in response to the rise in educational costs.  In essence, someone who could not afford college could still learn the material.  Smarthistory.com, Open Michigan content, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Looking for Whitman are just a few of thousands of successful open content projects just waiting for students and educators to take advantage of it.  What I am trying to say is we need to take advantage of open content now, and I highly encourage everyone to investigate this unknown treasure.