In the next 20 years, I predict that kinetic energy will be a viable widely accepted alternative power source for our personal devices that we carry on ourselves. We currently can purchase devices that harness our kinetic energy, like watches and cell phones; however, these devices are not widely accepted and affordable to the average user.
To determine if my forecast could possibly become reality, I would implement the classic Delphi method. The Delphi method incorporates a series of questions posed in several rounds, where the answers are reported in such a way that experts answering the questions do not know who’s answering it. Ultimately, the rounds of questions will reveal a consensus of whether my hypothesis could be correct or not (Cornish pg 67). My use of the Delphi method to forecast will be similar to others who have used it to forecast future innovations in the past (Skulmoski pg 5).
Examining my forecast further, there exist both supporting and non-supporting factors. The drive for environmental improvements with alternative energy provides excellent support to relinquish the strong hold of oil and coal and endorse kinetic energy. Another supporting force includes technical which will continue its legacy in the advancement of technology in providing power options. On the other hand, a non-supporting force could be financial. The expense to create the device that uses kinetic energy may outweigh its benefit. Yet another non-supporting force pertains to reliability. Will the device be reliable enough to keep time, not drop calls, etc?
Hopefully, the group of experts participating in the Delphi method will be able to collaborate and come to a consensus on my forecast. I would create a closed collaboration environment to keep the author’s responses secretive from each other through an anonymous list of responses (http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm). I will accept the loss of time in order to preserve anonymity to reduce peer influence and pressure, ensuring a pure and correct consensus on my forecast from the experts.
Delphi Method. (2010). Web Page. Retrieved January 27th 2011, from the Creative Minds Website: http://creatingminds.org/tools/delphi.htm
Cornish, Edward (2004). Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. Maryland: World Future Society.
Skulmoski, G., Hartman, F., & Krahn, J. (2007) The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. Journal of Information Technology Education, 6(21).